SECTION 01 / 8

Why we use expectations instead of unknown density formulas

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The chapter assumes that we can draw samples from the real-data distribution PXP_{X} and from the generator-induced distribution PθP_\theta , even if neither density can be evaluated. For any integrable function h,

EP[h(X)]=∫h(x)p(x) dx\mathbb{E}_P[h(X)]=\int h(x)p(x)\,dx

This is an exact mathematical identity. A finite-sample average is an estimate, not generally an equality.

Figure 28. Integral as expectation.
Figure 28. Integral as expectation.
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Illustration: Why we use expectations instead of unknown density formulas
Figure 27. Expectation as weighted average.
Figure 27. Expectation as weighted average.
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Illustration: Why we use expectations instead of unknown density formulas

Given independent identically distributed X1,…,XnX_1,\ldots,X_n drawn from P, the empirical estimate is 1n∑ih(Xi)\frac1n\sum_i h(X_i). Under the Law of Large Numbers assumptions (in particular, a finite expectation), it converges to EP[h(X)]\mathbb{E}_P[h(X)] as n grows. Individual estimates fluctuate.

Figure 29. Law of Large Numbers.
Figure 29. Law of Large Numbers.
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Illustration: Why we use expectations instead of unknown density formulas

Estimate an unknown mean

Figure 30. Monte Carlo sample average.
Figure 30. Monte Carlo sample average.
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Illustration: Why we use expectations instead of unknown density formulas
  1. Observed samples: 2, 4, 3, 5, 6.

  2. Compute the sample average: 2+4+3+5+65=4\frac{2+4+3+5+6}{5}=4.

  3. Interpretation: 4 estimates the population mean. We cannot conclude that the population mean is exactly 4.

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